Bold Prediction of the Week

This may be my boldest prediction yet and I am ready to put The Point After's 4-0 record on the line.  After doing some research, the University of Nevada Las Vegas is my selection to upset a top ten team this week.  They will be playing the undefeated San Diego State Aztecs on Wednesday night and I believe the Rebels will hand them their first loss.  The #6 Aztecs have had a great run so far this year, but it will toughen up this week as they take on New Mexico on Saturday as well.

The reason I selected UNLV as my bold prediction this week is their defense and efficient offense.  UNLV is coached by Lon Kruger, who is in his seventh season with the Rebels, and he has them playing tough defense.  UNLV is the seventh most efficient defense in the country according to KenPom defensive stat analysis.  27.1% of all defensive series result in turnovers, which is the fifth best rate in the country.  This team is playing tough defense, pressuring the ball and forcing a lot of turnovers.  Last week, TCU turned the ball over 23 times versus the strong Rebel defense.

On offense, UNLV has a balanced scoring attack, with four players averaging double-figures.  This is the most reliable type of offense, because if one of these players has an off night, there are others who can pick up the slack.  Chace Stanback has struggled the past few weeks after starting the season very strong.  Look for him to have a bounce back game, with over 20 points.  He's a tall wing player standing at 6-8, but he has a solid perimeter shot and has shot 40% from long range this season.

Yes this could put our record in jeopardy, but I'm confident UNLV can go into San Diego and beat the Aztecs by playing strong defense and systematic offense.  Prediction: UNLV 74 - San Diego State 68.