Let me start off by just saying, the Nets are in deep trouble. We can start calling them the Brooklyn Nets, as Jay-Z will be taking the team out of the best state in the country (NJ bias) in a year. Regardless, the Nets may have a better group of owners, but they certainly can't match that on the court. The team is simply built to fail right now. In a very tough conference with a large group of superstars, the Nets can finally claim they have one; however, they have really nothing past Deron Williams.
Taking a look at the roster, there's only one other guy than Deron Williams that I'd even like to have on my team: Brook Lopez. The 7-foot Center averaged just over 20 points a game with 6 rebounds. That's a lot of production from a 5, even with a lower than normal rebound rate. After Williams and Lopez, you've got a bunch of bench warmers that have been forced to start and play big minutes. The team clearly needs other options in order to compete.
Then there's Dwight Howard, who is entering his walk-year where the Magic will try and resign the worlds greatest Center. Howard is a difference-maker on both ends of the floor and can simply out-jump, out-rebound, and out-muscle every single player in the league. Howard will get a max contract without a doubt, but the Magic may choose to trade him if they don't believe they can resign him. This is where the Nets can finally make a difference for their future.
Deron Williams has expressed his desire to test the market next off-season as a free agent, and he too, will get a max contract. The Nets desperately want him to stay, but they simply don't have enough pieces to convince him they can contend. Therefore, a trade for Dwight Howard makes complete and total sense for the Nets. The only problem is if the Magic are ready to trade Dwight Howard and if they do, will it be to the Nets? The Lakers have shown interest and they can offer draft picks, as well as a combination of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol/Lamar Odom. The Lakers know Kobe Bryant's window is closing , so they are willing to do whatever it takes to get Kobe Bryant a playmaker in the paint that can win a couple of championships.
Although Bynum/Gasol/Odom are all big names and big-time players, I think the Magic would be better off trading with the Nets. It makes no sense for the Magic to get an aging Gasol or Odom when it's clear they couldn't compete with a roster headed by those players. The Nets can offer Brook Lopez, 2 1st round picks (definitely better than the Lakers 1st rounders), and a bunch of players that the Magic can basically hand-pick from the Nets roster. The Nets are willing to trade anybody other than Deron Williams if it means getting Dwight Howard. Pairing the two will provide an incentive to free agents to come and play in Brooklyn and potentially compete in 2013.
The Magic are desperately trying to get rid of Hedo Turkoglu's 3 year, $35 million deal, and the Nets have enough cap to absorb it. The Lakers on the other hand couldn't do that, playing in favor of the Nets. I expect this deal to happen eventually and probably in March (the proposed new trade deadline for the shortened season).
It's going to be a wild couple of weeks in the NBA, as teams gear up for the season starting on Christmas. No official roster moves can be made until December 9th, but teams can start talking to agents today at 9 AM Eastern.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Week 13 NFL Predictions
Boulder, CO - Sorry all, had to take off last week to deal with some family and personal stuff, but here are my week 13 NFL predicitons! BECAUSE ITS TUESDAY
Philadelphia vs Seattle - Seemingly a meaningless game, but the Eagles still have a very outside chance at the playoffs, and they need a win here in Seattle. Marshawn Lynch has been tearing up in the last 4 weeks with one TD in each game. Eagles on top 33-30
Carolina vs Tampa bay - Cam Newton faces another lackluster defense, and he will probably tear them up. Cam gets the win on the road 27-17
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh - A lot falls on this game. Andy Dalton and the Bengals try to continue their dream season, and need a win here to stay in the hunt for the division title. Can't see Dalton beating the Steelers just yet though (although Polamalu is banged up). Pittsburgh wins in another close game 24-21
Atlanta at Houston - Schuab is out, Leinert is out, so who does the texans turn to? T.J Yates? Atleast they have the leagues best rush offense, so I expect a lot of Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Atlanta has struggled this year on the road too with losses at Chicago, Tampa Bay, and barely escaping the Seahawks. It'll be fun to watch. Atlanta wins 38-21
NY Jets vs Washington - Every game is a playoff game for Rex and the Jets. Mark Sanchez needs to get his act together too in the first half of the game, and make better decisions. Jets win 24-10
Indianapolis vs New England - This game used to be exciting....Patriots dominate them 31-7
Oakland vs Miami - Miami almost beat Dallas, and continues to play spoiler down the stretch. Carson Palmer and the Raiders are tough to beat these days, even without McFadden. Oakland win 20-13
Denver vs Minnesota - Are you on the Tebow wagon yet? I am! I love this kid, plays with the most heart I have ever seen from a young quarterback. Plus the Denver D can effectively manhandle the mediocre Minnesota offense. Denver wins 10-3
Tennessee vs Buffalo - A must win for Buffalo to stay alive in the AFC wild card picture. Circle the wagons? Probably. Bills win 30-21
KC vs Chicago - Bears are struggling without Jay Cutler at the helm, and back up QB Hanie out of CSU just cant get the job done. Hard times in Chicago after promising start. Orton goes back to his old home, I'd like to see him win. Upset alert KC wins 27-20
Green Bay vs NY Giants - Green Bay keeps rolling. Giants keep falling. Green Bay blows them out 49-24
Baltimore at Cleveland - Colt McCoy coming off a big win, and Baltimore is easily the most inconsistent team on the road. Baltimore stands tall and wins 30-13
Dallas vs Arizona - Dallas can get some more separation this week from the Giants with a win. They control their own fate. Dallas win 35-20
St. Louis vs San Francisco - San Fran lost to a very good Baltimore team, and was held to only 6 points offensively, their worst showing all season long. Easy win, and they clinch their first division title since 2002. SF wins 21-10
Detroit vs New Orleans - Drew Brees is just too damn good sometimes....seriously. Staffords finger is still bothering him too, plus they will be without leading pass rusher Suh for a two game suspension. All the odds are against the Lions. Saints own them at home 45-21
San Diego vs Jacksonville - Both teams have practically nothing to play for. Rivers is a whining QB now, and he'll probably throw three more INTs. Jacksonville wins 21-20
Monday, November 28, 2011
Texans, Bears in Difficult Situations
A glance at the Bears and Texans records shows two football teams in great position to make a postseason run. Both teams, however, lost their starting QB's and may struggle to even make the playoffs. The Bears (7-4) are fighting for a wild card spot, but lost to the Raiders yesterday, as Caleb Hanie filled in for Jay Cutler, who is out for at least the regular season with a broken thumb. The Texans are in an even worse position, as their starting and backup QBs are now out for the season. Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart are done and now Gary Kubiak has to lean on rookie T.J. Yates for a playoff push.
Currently, the Texans are tied for the best record in the AFC at 8-3, holding a conference record tie-breaker over New England and Baltimore. The Texans don't seem as scary anymore though with their top two quarterbacks on the shelf. Houston has one of the best rushing attacks in all of football, but it will take more than that to beat quality opponents in January. Andre Johnson is back after a six-week absence, but can he succeed with Yates? Even as the #1 seed right now, Houston still isn't secure in the playoff race. Just 5 games remain, but there is a real possibility that the Texans will be playing for the division in Week 17 against Tennessee.
Houston has ATL, @CIN, CAR, @IND, and TEN left on their schedule. The Titans (6-5), who stand just two games back, have @BUF, NO, @IND, JAC, and @HOU remaining. I can't see T.J. Yates and the Texans beating Atlanta, Cincinnati, and even Carolina, so I believe Houston goes into the Tennessee game at 9-6. If Tennessee can win 3 of their next four, which I think they can do as long as they run the football the way they did yesterday, they will go into Houston with a chance to steal the division from the Texans. This division is all of a sudden up in the air as the injury bug is to blame for the Texans. Houston must run the ball successfully to win, so it will be interesting to see how defenses play against an unexperienced QB. I expect a lot of blitzes and 8-man fronts in order to force Yates into making a play.
Up North, the Chicago Bears saw their playoff hopes take a slight fall yesterday after losing to the Raiders. The Bears are still in good position, but I didn't like what I saw out of Hanie. We all know that Hanie can move around the pocket with the ball and make throws on the run, but he struggled yesterday, completing just 18 of his 36 attempts for 254 yards. He did throw 2 touchdown passes, but also had 3 interceptions. The Bears are best when they can run the ball and control the game. They ran the ball very well yesterday, with Hanie, Forte, and Barber all rushing over 50 yards; however, Hanie can't turn the ball over 3 times and expect to win.
The Bears realistically need to get to 10 wins in order to make the postseason via the wild card. The Lions and Falcons both are at 7-4, while the Giants play the Saints tonight in hopes to join the group. The Lions have a tough schedule as they have New Orleans and Green Bay still left. I see the Lions finishing at 9-7, a game short of the playoffs. The Giants have a very rough schedule, playing the Saints, Packers, and Cowboys twice in their last 6. They need to go 4-2, but I don't think they can do it. The Giants must steal one from the Saints or Packers for a shot at the Wild Card. The Falcons are in the best position of the four right now and I fully expect them to make the playoffs. The Falcons will get to 10 wins and could even win the division by beating the Saints in a few weeks.
That leaves the Bears muddled among these teams. The Bears must win three games to make the playoffs, which is feasible. It'll be tough for Chicago to win the smallest of games with Caleb Hanie behind center, but I'm sure he'll put in a lot of work again this week in hopes to put together a couple of wins. The Bears have winnable games remaining on the schedule, even with the Packers game looming in Week 16.
My Playoff Predictions as of Today:
AFC:
1. Patriots
2. Ravens
3. Raiders
4. Texans
5. Steelers
6. Bengals
NFC:
1. Packers
2. 49ers
3. Saints
4. Cowboys
5. Falcons
6. Bears
Currently, the Texans are tied for the best record in the AFC at 8-3, holding a conference record tie-breaker over New England and Baltimore. The Texans don't seem as scary anymore though with their top two quarterbacks on the shelf. Houston has one of the best rushing attacks in all of football, but it will take more than that to beat quality opponents in January. Andre Johnson is back after a six-week absence, but can he succeed with Yates? Even as the #1 seed right now, Houston still isn't secure in the playoff race. Just 5 games remain, but there is a real possibility that the Texans will be playing for the division in Week 17 against Tennessee.
Houston has ATL, @CIN, CAR, @IND, and TEN left on their schedule. The Titans (6-5), who stand just two games back, have @BUF, NO, @IND, JAC, and @HOU remaining. I can't see T.J. Yates and the Texans beating Atlanta, Cincinnati, and even Carolina, so I believe Houston goes into the Tennessee game at 9-6. If Tennessee can win 3 of their next four, which I think they can do as long as they run the football the way they did yesterday, they will go into Houston with a chance to steal the division from the Texans. This division is all of a sudden up in the air as the injury bug is to blame for the Texans. Houston must run the ball successfully to win, so it will be interesting to see how defenses play against an unexperienced QB. I expect a lot of blitzes and 8-man fronts in order to force Yates into making a play.
Up North, the Chicago Bears saw their playoff hopes take a slight fall yesterday after losing to the Raiders. The Bears are still in good position, but I didn't like what I saw out of Hanie. We all know that Hanie can move around the pocket with the ball and make throws on the run, but he struggled yesterday, completing just 18 of his 36 attempts for 254 yards. He did throw 2 touchdown passes, but also had 3 interceptions. The Bears are best when they can run the ball and control the game. They ran the ball very well yesterday, with Hanie, Forte, and Barber all rushing over 50 yards; however, Hanie can't turn the ball over 3 times and expect to win.
The Bears realistically need to get to 10 wins in order to make the postseason via the wild card. The Lions and Falcons both are at 7-4, while the Giants play the Saints tonight in hopes to join the group. The Lions have a tough schedule as they have New Orleans and Green Bay still left. I see the Lions finishing at 9-7, a game short of the playoffs. The Giants have a very rough schedule, playing the Saints, Packers, and Cowboys twice in their last 6. They need to go 4-2, but I don't think they can do it. The Giants must steal one from the Saints or Packers for a shot at the Wild Card. The Falcons are in the best position of the four right now and I fully expect them to make the playoffs. The Falcons will get to 10 wins and could even win the division by beating the Saints in a few weeks.
That leaves the Bears muddled among these teams. The Bears must win three games to make the playoffs, which is feasible. It'll be tough for Chicago to win the smallest of games with Caleb Hanie behind center, but I'm sure he'll put in a lot of work again this week in hopes to put together a couple of wins. The Bears have winnable games remaining on the schedule, even with the Packers game looming in Week 16.
My Playoff Predictions as of Today:
AFC:
1. Patriots
2. Ravens
3. Raiders
4. Texans
5. Steelers
6. Bengals
NFC:
1. Packers
2. 49ers
3. Saints
4. Cowboys
5. Falcons
6. Bears
Monday, November 21, 2011
NFC Playoff Picture Week 12
Week 11 isn't completely over yet, but it is for the NFC. Their were two major headlines from yesterday's NFC teams: the Giants falling to the depleted Eagles and the Chicago Bears losing Jay Cutler for the rest of the regular season. Both stories affect the rest of the season drastically, as the Bears looked great in their victory against the Chargers and the Giants gave the Eagles a glimmer of hope. Last week I had 9 teams in the NFC competing for the 6 playoff spots, but Tampa Bay's comeback hopes fell short against the undefeated Packers. Tampa Bay is out in my books, leaving eight real possibilities.
I will not be listing the toughest remaining opponents this week, but if you click on each team name, it will direct you to their team page on ESPN.
Note: As I said last week, the teams are ranked based on their likelihood to make the playoffs. Each percentage takes into consideration the remaining schedule, % chance of winning division, and % chance of a wild card spot.
1. Green Bay Packers (10-0) - The Packers held on against the Bucs and the offense looked great in doing so. The defense is a little suspect, giving up a lot of opportunities to an anemic Buccaneer offense. This team is still the best, but it'll be a tough road to the Superbowl.
Chances of making playoffs: 100%
2. San Francisco 49ers (9-1) - The Niners can officially clinch the division next week with a win and Seattle loss. San Francisco is in great position to get at least the #2 seed in the playoffs, which will give them a bye in the first round. If Green Bay loses, the 49ers could push for the top spot.
Chances of making playoffs: 100%
3. New Orleans Saints (7-3) - New Orleans had a bye this week and their playoff prospects took a small hit because of the Falcons victory. The Saints have proven they can win big games and they have a few of them coming up soon. They must take care of business against the Falcons in Week 16, which will basically give them the division.
Chances of making playoffs: 95%
4. Chicago Bears (7-3) - I wanted to move the Bears down just because of Cutler's broken thumb, but just take a look at their schedule. They should be fine with Caleb Hanie behind center, as they will focus on getting Matt Forte the ball. Hanie will need to limit mistakes and play it safe. He showed us last season in the NFC Championship game that he can play, but he doesn't have to be a hero. The Bears are the favorites in 5 of their remaining 6 games and if they go 4-2, they'll be just fine.
Chances of making playoffs: 90%
5. Dallas Cowboys (6-4) - Here's the first change in the playoff picture compared to last week. The Cowboys were able to survive a scare from Washington as Graham Gano missed a 52 yarder in overtime giving the Cowboys' Dan Bailey an opportunity to win the game with a 39 yard field goal. It was a big win for the Cowboys, who play in three days against the Dolphins at home. Miami is hot, so it won't be an easy game.
Chances of making playoffs: 70%
6. Detroit Lions (7-3) - The Lions had another huge comeback against the Panthers, as they ended up with 49 points (35 coming in the 2nd half). Detroit had to win that game, so credit Matthew Stafford and company for coming up big when they were down early to Carolina. The schedule is not on their side, but the Lions should be fine if they get to 10-6.
Chances of making playoffs: 50%
7. New York Giants (6-4) - The loss last night was inexcusable. The Eagles were without their best player (Michael Vick) and best receiver (Jeremy Maclin). The Giants cannot win games if the put up just 10 points. Their defense is good and held the Eagles in check most of the night, but the offense needs to do better than they did yesterday. The Giants play the Saints and Packers in the next two weeks. A split would be a great result, putting them in position again in the division. If they lose both, they will likely go to Dallas down at least 1 game, maybe even 2.
Chances of making playoffs: 50%
8. Atlanta Falcons (6-4) - Atlanta must get to 10-6 in order to think about the Wild Card and probably 11-5 for the NFC South. Beating the Titans was a good start and the schedule is very favorable. Atlanta has a realistic shot at the playoffs, but they cannot afford to lose many more games.
Chances of making playoffs: 43%
Those are my remaining 8 playoff contenders. As you notice, there's a little bit of probability left which will be distributed to the new 9th place Playoff Picture team.
9. Philadelphia (2%) - Really helped their chances with a win versus the Giants, but they must win out. Their hopes rely heavily on what happens next week against New England. A win there and then we'll talk about moving them up to the "contender list", but for now they're safe here.
10. Tampa Bay
11. Seattle
12. Washington
13. Arizona
14. Minnesota
15. Carolina
16. St. Louis
I will not be listing the toughest remaining opponents this week, but if you click on each team name, it will direct you to their team page on ESPN.
Note: As I said last week, the teams are ranked based on their likelihood to make the playoffs. Each percentage takes into consideration the remaining schedule, % chance of winning division, and % chance of a wild card spot.
1. Green Bay Packers (10-0) - The Packers held on against the Bucs and the offense looked great in doing so. The defense is a little suspect, giving up a lot of opportunities to an anemic Buccaneer offense. This team is still the best, but it'll be a tough road to the Superbowl.
Chances of making playoffs: 100%
2. San Francisco 49ers (9-1) - The Niners can officially clinch the division next week with a win and Seattle loss. San Francisco is in great position to get at least the #2 seed in the playoffs, which will give them a bye in the first round. If Green Bay loses, the 49ers could push for the top spot.
Chances of making playoffs: 100%
3. New Orleans Saints (7-3) - New Orleans had a bye this week and their playoff prospects took a small hit because of the Falcons victory. The Saints have proven they can win big games and they have a few of them coming up soon. They must take care of business against the Falcons in Week 16, which will basically give them the division.
Chances of making playoffs: 95%
4. Chicago Bears (7-3) - I wanted to move the Bears down just because of Cutler's broken thumb, but just take a look at their schedule. They should be fine with Caleb Hanie behind center, as they will focus on getting Matt Forte the ball. Hanie will need to limit mistakes and play it safe. He showed us last season in the NFC Championship game that he can play, but he doesn't have to be a hero. The Bears are the favorites in 5 of their remaining 6 games and if they go 4-2, they'll be just fine.
Chances of making playoffs: 90%
5. Dallas Cowboys (6-4) - Here's the first change in the playoff picture compared to last week. The Cowboys were able to survive a scare from Washington as Graham Gano missed a 52 yarder in overtime giving the Cowboys' Dan Bailey an opportunity to win the game with a 39 yard field goal. It was a big win for the Cowboys, who play in three days against the Dolphins at home. Miami is hot, so it won't be an easy game.
Chances of making playoffs: 70%
6. Detroit Lions (7-3) - The Lions had another huge comeback against the Panthers, as they ended up with 49 points (35 coming in the 2nd half). Detroit had to win that game, so credit Matthew Stafford and company for coming up big when they were down early to Carolina. The schedule is not on their side, but the Lions should be fine if they get to 10-6.
Chances of making playoffs: 50%
7. New York Giants (6-4) - The loss last night was inexcusable. The Eagles were without their best player (Michael Vick) and best receiver (Jeremy Maclin). The Giants cannot win games if the put up just 10 points. Their defense is good and held the Eagles in check most of the night, but the offense needs to do better than they did yesterday. The Giants play the Saints and Packers in the next two weeks. A split would be a great result, putting them in position again in the division. If they lose both, they will likely go to Dallas down at least 1 game, maybe even 2.
Chances of making playoffs: 50%
8. Atlanta Falcons (6-4) - Atlanta must get to 10-6 in order to think about the Wild Card and probably 11-5 for the NFC South. Beating the Titans was a good start and the schedule is very favorable. Atlanta has a realistic shot at the playoffs, but they cannot afford to lose many more games.
Chances of making playoffs: 43%
Those are my remaining 8 playoff contenders. As you notice, there's a little bit of probability left which will be distributed to the new 9th place Playoff Picture team.
9. Philadelphia (2%) - Really helped their chances with a win versus the Giants, but they must win out. Their hopes rely heavily on what happens next week against New England. A win there and then we'll talk about moving them up to the "contender list", but for now they're safe here.
10. Tampa Bay
11. Seattle
12. Washington
13. Arizona
14. Minnesota
15. Carolina
16. St. Louis
Saturday, November 19, 2011
The Devils Finally Begin To Kick It Into Gear
No start could be as bad as the 9-22-2 record that the New Jersey Devils posted on December 23, 2010.
However, the start to the Devils' 2011 season was alarmingly similar to their start to the 2010 season. Granted, the record is much different. Following a dominant victory in Buffalo on Wednesday night and another pivotal win tonight against the Florida Panthers, the Devils find themselves at 10-7-1. Needless to say, the record has improved significantly. But, prior to the game in Buffalo, their season statistics were very similar to last year's.
Before the win in Buffalo, the Devils offense had been dormant. They had put up four goals in just two games, three goals in the games and in the remaining five games, they were held to under two goals. It all added up to a goals per game average of about 2.50 heading into Buffalo. A very similar GPG was the reason why the Devils had such a horrendous start last year.
But, after scoring five goals in Buffalo, the Devils offense may have finally begun the click. The goaltender for the Sabres had a 6-0 record, a 1.76 Goals Against Average and a .942 Save Percentage. All of those statistics are very hard to beat. And, on Wednesday night, the Devils scored five goals in a rout. The Devils had a power-play goal and a shorthanded goal in the contest.
Tonight, the Devils scored four goals. Against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Devils had a two power-play goals and nearly had a short-handed goal, as Dainius Zubrus scored literally right after the Lightning power-play expired. The puck crossed the goal line about a half of a second after the power-play ended.
Can the Devils go for three straight? It is possible. They will face a good Florida Panthers team in Miami on Monday. But, the Devils have the momentum, scoring nine goals over two games - none of which came empty-netted. They are getting great team play from several players including the 35 year old, Patrick Elias, the longtime Devil, David Clarkson and the 21 year old rookie, Adam Henrique who has ten points over his last nine games.
The Devils have gotten this far based on one aspect of the game - defense. In order to win games, the defense must remain consistent. They kill off an unprecedented 95% of their powerplays including all six against the Lightning tonight. After a rocky start, the 39 year old future hall of famer, Martin Brodeur has been very solid over the past several games. Not to mention, his backup, Johan Hedberg is putting up very solid numbers himself.
To summarize, New Jersey cannot expect to win if they do not maintain a consistent offense. Martin Brodeur is still a good starting goaltender but the is no longer the top goaltender or even a top ten goaltender in the league anymore. He is maybe a top eleven or twelve option. Also, he does not start nearly as much as he used to and the backup goaltender, Hedberg will continue to have a somewhat big role on the team. They Devils may have finally turned the page on the lackluster offense that has plagued them for the past thirteen months. The Devils are currently tied for the eighth playoff seed. Stay tuned to see the New Jersey Devils can continue to score goals and win games.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Note: The Houston Astros to the AL West
The Houston Astros are about to be sold to new ownership, but that's not the only big change they'll be making in the next couple of years. According to multiple sources, the MLB has told the Astros that any sale of the team will require the team to switch to the American League West in 2013. The Astros have a long history in the NL, starting in 1962, but they are on their way to the DH. This will even out the leagues, giving both the AL and NL fifteen teams each. The AL West, which contains the Rangers, Angels, Mariners, and Athletics, will finally get a fifth team. Additionally, the NL Central will go down to five teams, aligning them with the rest of the MLB.
Although this seems to make sense, there are a lot of things that will change because of this decision. First of all, simple math will tell you that interleague play will be occurring every single day starting in 2013. It may actually even out the playing field, as more teams will play similar schedules to their divisional opponents.
The part that probably bothers me and the Astros the most is the fact that they will be playing 1/3 of their games two time zones away. That will start games at 9:00 Central time for Astro fans. The Texas Rangers have to deal with this every year and you hear little complaint from them, but it is still a factor for TV ratings. The Rangers are probably ecstatic about this move because it puts them close to a divisional opponent and creates a natural state rivalry between the Dallas/Arlington and Houston regions.
The Astros will have to change the dynamic of their team completely, as many of their decisions will have to factor in the switch to the DH. I think it is a huge change for them, because they have always thought that if a guy didn't have a position, they should get rid of him. At the same time, they should be happy that they can start anew somewhere else in the MLB. The Astros have struggled mightily the past few years and really haven't been good since Carlos Beltran left the team 7 years ago. This could give them a boost as an organization and fan base, because it really couldn't get worse than it has been recently.
Although this seems to make sense, there are a lot of things that will change because of this decision. First of all, simple math will tell you that interleague play will be occurring every single day starting in 2013. It may actually even out the playing field, as more teams will play similar schedules to their divisional opponents.
The part that probably bothers me and the Astros the most is the fact that they will be playing 1/3 of their games two time zones away. That will start games at 9:00 Central time for Astro fans. The Texas Rangers have to deal with this every year and you hear little complaint from them, but it is still a factor for TV ratings. The Rangers are probably ecstatic about this move because it puts them close to a divisional opponent and creates a natural state rivalry between the Dallas/Arlington and Houston regions.
The Astros will have to change the dynamic of their team completely, as many of their decisions will have to factor in the switch to the DH. I think it is a huge change for them, because they have always thought that if a guy didn't have a position, they should get rid of him. At the same time, they should be happy that they can start anew somewhere else in the MLB. The Astros have struggled mightily the past few years and really haven't been good since Carlos Beltran left the team 7 years ago. This could give them a boost as an organization and fan base, because it really couldn't get worse than it has been recently.
AFC Playoff Picture
After taking a look at the NFC Playoff Picture earlier in the week, I will now delve into the AFC. The AFC is much different than it used to be, as the Colts, Steelers, and Patriots are no longer as dominant as they used to be. The Colts have been a mainstay in the AFC playoffs for a decade, but hey, you lose a guy like Peyton Manning and you're team will not be nearly as competitive. With that being said, there are just 4 teams that I can safely say are out of the playoffs. The entire AFC West is up for grabs, while the two Wild Cards will probably be produced from the AFC East or North. Tonight, the Jets play the Broncos, which will is a very important game for both teams. The Jets need to avoid losing their second straight, while the Broncos hope the Tim Tebow show has only begun.
I will use the same structure again, ranking each team in order of the likelihood they make the playoffs.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) - Picking a top team was almost impossible. There is no team that is definitely into the postseason even after ten weeks, but the Steelers are the closest to it. The Steelers have lost two to the Ravens, but they will probably be okay considering the rest of their schedule. Winning 4 of their last 6 will get them in easily, and I think they will do that.
Chances of making postseason: 95%
3 Toughest Games: @KC, CIN, @SF
2. New England Patriots (6-3) - The Pats are in good position considering the Jets and Bills aren't playing their best football right now. They have the inside track to the AFC East crown and have a cake-walk of a schedule. The Patriots lost a game to the Steelers, so it will be an interesting race to get home-field advantage in the AFC.
Chances of making postseason: 95%
3 Toughest Games: @PHI, @DEN, BUF
3. Houston Texans (7-3) - The Texans would have been the first ranked team here, if it weren't for the injury to Matt Schaub. With Mario Williams and now Schaub out for the season, this team will have to regroup dramatically. Good news is that Andre Johnson will be back in action in Week 12 (after the bye) against Jacksonville, providing new QB Matt Leinart a go-to option. With Arian Foster and Ben Tate leading the most talented running attack in the game, the Texans will hold off the Titans for the AFC South title.
Chances of making postseason: 90%
3 Toughest Games: ATL, @CIN, TEN
4. Baltimore Ravens: The Eagles are definitely the most disappointing team this season, but the Ravens are probably the most confusing. After demolishing the Steelers in Week 1, they travelled to Tennessee and were doubled up 26-13. Blips like that happen, so I discounted it as a one-time thing. Then the Ravens went out and beat the Jets and the Texans in consecutive games, before losing to the Jaguars in Week 7. To make matters even worse, the Ravens beat the Steelers again in Week 9 and then followed it up with a loss to the Seattle Seahawks. No team has been so up and down as the Ravens this year. The combined record of the teams they beat is: 31-26 (counting the Steelers twice). The record of the teams they lost to? 11-16. Not good to see from a team that many picked to play in the Superbowl. With their struggles against bad teams, the Ravens should be in the postseason, as long as they can split with Cincinnati and take care of the other winnable games. The Ravens need to win 4 more games at least to contend for the Wild Card, with 5 necessary for the division.
Chances of making postseason: 75%
3 Toughest Games: CIN, SF, @CIN
5. New York Jets (5-4) - The Jets are coming off of a disappointing loss to the Patriots and look destined for the Wild Card race. With so many teams in the race, the Jets will have a tough time beating out the likes of the Ravens/Steelers, Bengals, Bills. The Jets have an okay schedule remaining, but winning tonight is a must. Rex Ryan & Co. will need to win 5 of their last 7 to get to 10-6.
Chances of making postseason: 60%
3 Toughest Games: @DEN, @PHI, NYG
6. Oakland Raiders (5-4) - Somebody's gotta win the AFC West right? The Raiders are in the best position to take the division considering the other three teams are all a game back from Oakland in the standings. The schedule isn't favorable, but it's not going to take a great record to take this division. A 9-7 record will probably do it, which the Raiders have the ability to do. There are two fairly soft games on the schedule, starting this week against Minnesota.
Chances of making postseason: 40%
3 Toughest Games: CHI, @GB, DET
7. Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) - The surprise team of the AFC, the Bengals have a tough road to the playoffs; however, if the very good Cincinnati defense can keep dominating, Andy Dalton can lead this team to victories. Cincannti gave Pittsburgh a fit last week and the Bengals look to do so again against the Ravens on Sunday. The remaining schedule is tough, but it will be interesting to see if the Bengals can stick around in the playoff race. They seem to win the games that they are expected to and compete in those they are underdogs. That's the recipe of a solid football team that can catch fire at any time.
Chances of making postseason: 40%
8. Buffalo Bills (5-4) - The Bills quickly won the hearts of America in the first three weeks, knocking off the Chiefs, Raiders and Patriots. Since then, the Bills are 2-4 and have been blown out the last two weeks by the Jets and Cowboys. The Bills need to win 5 of their last 7 in order to have a shot at the Wild Card and it doesn't seem likely. Miami has really played better of late and unfortunately for Buffalo, they play the Dolphins twice more this season.
Chances of making postseason: 25%
3 Toughest Games: @NYJ, @SD, @NE
9. Tennessee Titans (5-4) - The Titans are playing better as of late, mostly due to the emergence of their running game. The offensive line and Chris Johnson did not play well the first half of the season and the Titans struggled to move the ball down the field. Johnson has put up better numbers as of late, but do they have enough to catch the Texans? The Titans have a better chance of hoping the Texans falter without Schaub, but at least they have a shot.
Chances of making postseason: 20%
3 Toughest Games: @ATL, NO, @HOU
10. Denver Broncos (4-5) - You could put the Chargers or Chiefs here too, but I'm just going by remaining schedule. The AFC West is really a toss up at this point, but the Broncos have won 3 of 4 and have reason to believe in themselves. John Fox has really gotten the running game going with the Tebow Option playbook in full effect. The Broncos have a tough game against the Jets tonight, followed by an important divisional matchup next week against the Chargers.
Chances of making postseason: 20%
3 Toughest Games: NYJ, CHI, NE
11. San Diego Chargers (4-5) - The Chargers can't seem to ever come through, despite putting together one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. Rivers has played awful the past few weeks, but I expect him to get better. Still it's a longshot they make the playoffs based on their inability to win close games.
Chances of making postseason: 20%
3 Toughest Games: @CHI, BAL, @DET
12. Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) - The Chiefs have lost their most talented players on both the offense and defense (Charles and Berry), but they were able to win some games in October to bounce back. They face the improbable task of winning with a backup quarterback, now that Matt Cassel is likely out for awhile. The Chiefs will need to run the ball better and open up the passing game with their talented receivers, but it's highly unlikely they make the playoffs.
Chances of making postseason: 20%
3 Toughest Games: @NE, PIT, GB (Also have games against CHI and NYJ on the road)
So there are the 12 teams that I give a chance to make the playoffs. The AFC West will be an interesting race, as will the Wild Card race. It's going to be a fun seven weeks and there is a lot to look forward to. Here are the last 4 teams ranked based on the probability they make the playoffs.
13. Jacksonville
14. Miami
15. Cleveland
16. Indianapolis
I will use the same structure again, ranking each team in order of the likelihood they make the playoffs.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) - Picking a top team was almost impossible. There is no team that is definitely into the postseason even after ten weeks, but the Steelers are the closest to it. The Steelers have lost two to the Ravens, but they will probably be okay considering the rest of their schedule. Winning 4 of their last 6 will get them in easily, and I think they will do that.
Chances of making postseason: 95%
3 Toughest Games: @KC, CIN, @SF
2. New England Patriots (6-3) - The Pats are in good position considering the Jets and Bills aren't playing their best football right now. They have the inside track to the AFC East crown and have a cake-walk of a schedule. The Patriots lost a game to the Steelers, so it will be an interesting race to get home-field advantage in the AFC.
Chances of making postseason: 95%
3 Toughest Games: @PHI, @DEN, BUF
3. Houston Texans (7-3) - The Texans would have been the first ranked team here, if it weren't for the injury to Matt Schaub. With Mario Williams and now Schaub out for the season, this team will have to regroup dramatically. Good news is that Andre Johnson will be back in action in Week 12 (after the bye) against Jacksonville, providing new QB Matt Leinart a go-to option. With Arian Foster and Ben Tate leading the most talented running attack in the game, the Texans will hold off the Titans for the AFC South title.
Chances of making postseason: 90%
3 Toughest Games: ATL, @CIN, TEN
4. Baltimore Ravens: The Eagles are definitely the most disappointing team this season, but the Ravens are probably the most confusing. After demolishing the Steelers in Week 1, they travelled to Tennessee and were doubled up 26-13. Blips like that happen, so I discounted it as a one-time thing. Then the Ravens went out and beat the Jets and the Texans in consecutive games, before losing to the Jaguars in Week 7. To make matters even worse, the Ravens beat the Steelers again in Week 9 and then followed it up with a loss to the Seattle Seahawks. No team has been so up and down as the Ravens this year. The combined record of the teams they beat is: 31-26 (counting the Steelers twice). The record of the teams they lost to? 11-16. Not good to see from a team that many picked to play in the Superbowl. With their struggles against bad teams, the Ravens should be in the postseason, as long as they can split with Cincinnati and take care of the other winnable games. The Ravens need to win 4 more games at least to contend for the Wild Card, with 5 necessary for the division.
Chances of making postseason: 75%
3 Toughest Games: CIN, SF, @CIN
5. New York Jets (5-4) - The Jets are coming off of a disappointing loss to the Patriots and look destined for the Wild Card race. With so many teams in the race, the Jets will have a tough time beating out the likes of the Ravens/Steelers, Bengals, Bills. The Jets have an okay schedule remaining, but winning tonight is a must. Rex Ryan & Co. will need to win 5 of their last 7 to get to 10-6.
Chances of making postseason: 60%
3 Toughest Games: @DEN, @PHI, NYG
6. Oakland Raiders (5-4) - Somebody's gotta win the AFC West right? The Raiders are in the best position to take the division considering the other three teams are all a game back from Oakland in the standings. The schedule isn't favorable, but it's not going to take a great record to take this division. A 9-7 record will probably do it, which the Raiders have the ability to do. There are two fairly soft games on the schedule, starting this week against Minnesota.
Chances of making postseason: 40%
3 Toughest Games: CHI, @GB, DET
7. Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) - The surprise team of the AFC, the Bengals have a tough road to the playoffs; however, if the very good Cincinnati defense can keep dominating, Andy Dalton can lead this team to victories. Cincannti gave Pittsburgh a fit last week and the Bengals look to do so again against the Ravens on Sunday. The remaining schedule is tough, but it will be interesting to see if the Bengals can stick around in the playoff race. They seem to win the games that they are expected to and compete in those they are underdogs. That's the recipe of a solid football team that can catch fire at any time.
Chances of making postseason: 40%
8. Buffalo Bills (5-4) - The Bills quickly won the hearts of America in the first three weeks, knocking off the Chiefs, Raiders and Patriots. Since then, the Bills are 2-4 and have been blown out the last two weeks by the Jets and Cowboys. The Bills need to win 5 of their last 7 in order to have a shot at the Wild Card and it doesn't seem likely. Miami has really played better of late and unfortunately for Buffalo, they play the Dolphins twice more this season.
Chances of making postseason: 25%
3 Toughest Games: @NYJ, @SD, @NE
9. Tennessee Titans (5-4) - The Titans are playing better as of late, mostly due to the emergence of their running game. The offensive line and Chris Johnson did not play well the first half of the season and the Titans struggled to move the ball down the field. Johnson has put up better numbers as of late, but do they have enough to catch the Texans? The Titans have a better chance of hoping the Texans falter without Schaub, but at least they have a shot.
Chances of making postseason: 20%
3 Toughest Games: @ATL, NO, @HOU
10. Denver Broncos (4-5) - You could put the Chargers or Chiefs here too, but I'm just going by remaining schedule. The AFC West is really a toss up at this point, but the Broncos have won 3 of 4 and have reason to believe in themselves. John Fox has really gotten the running game going with the Tebow Option playbook in full effect. The Broncos have a tough game against the Jets tonight, followed by an important divisional matchup next week against the Chargers.
Chances of making postseason: 20%
3 Toughest Games: NYJ, CHI, NE
11. San Diego Chargers (4-5) - The Chargers can't seem to ever come through, despite putting together one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. Rivers has played awful the past few weeks, but I expect him to get better. Still it's a longshot they make the playoffs based on their inability to win close games.
Chances of making postseason: 20%
3 Toughest Games: @CHI, BAL, @DET
12. Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) - The Chiefs have lost their most talented players on both the offense and defense (Charles and Berry), but they were able to win some games in October to bounce back. They face the improbable task of winning with a backup quarterback, now that Matt Cassel is likely out for awhile. The Chiefs will need to run the ball better and open up the passing game with their talented receivers, but it's highly unlikely they make the playoffs.
Chances of making postseason: 20%
3 Toughest Games: @NE, PIT, GB (Also have games against CHI and NYJ on the road)
So there are the 12 teams that I give a chance to make the playoffs. The AFC West will be an interesting race, as will the Wild Card race. It's going to be a fun seven weeks and there is a lot to look forward to. Here are the last 4 teams ranked based on the probability they make the playoffs.
13. Jacksonville
14. Miami
15. Cleveland
16. Indianapolis
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
NFL Week 11 Predictions
Well, I had a crappy week...only going 7-9. I think I got them this week though. Here they are
Thursday Night
NYJ vs DEN- Run the ball 50 times against this team, and it will likely get you nowhere. Rex Ryan will probably blitz every play. I mean why not? Make Tebow throw the ball, and its almost a gimme game. With that being said, Jets win in a low scoring affair 17-10.
Sunday
DAL vs WSH- Not quite a "must win" game for the Cowboys yet, but if they lose, it will be much harder to keep pace in the playoff race. Romo and Murray are on fire, and hope to see this continue. Always a good match-up, and especially tough at FedEx field. Cowboys win 28-13
JAC vs CLE - Honestly who knows? Which Jaguar team will show up to play on Sunday makes all the difference. I see a strong dosage of MJD coming, and a Jaguar win. 24-20
CAR vs DET - Rebound game for Detroit? Not so fast. Stafford is a key part to this teams success, and when he plays poorly, the entire team plays poorly. I think Cam "the Man" Newton tears up Ford Field, and squeak by the struggling Lions. Panthers win 35-21
TB vs GB - Battle of the Bays! Ha, not quite that funny, and I don't think Tampa will be laughing at the end of this game...Green Bay will annihilate the Bucs winning 44-10.
BUF vs MIA - Great divisional match-up. Buffalo is staring to fall off the map after their very hot start, and Matt Moore is starting to heat things up in Miami by really embracing this spoiler role. Suck for Luck? Nope, not on Sunday. Dolphins win 19-16
CIN vs BAL - This had the makings of a great divisional game, but with Baltimore playing so inconsistently, and the Bengals proving their might with a tough loss in Heinz field it could go either way. I give Baltimore the home field advantage, and they take it in a close one 27-24
SEA vs STL - Ah yes, I remember when this game was actually meaningful on week 16 last year. Too bad it will not be the case this year. Marshawn Lynch is on a tear (look at this beast!), and Pete Carrol and company will keep handing him the ball. Seattle wins 24-10
ARI vs SF - I don't know why I think the Cardinals will upset the 49ners in this game, but I do. Frank Gore it hurt (but not out), and the Cardinals offense is playing surprisingly well without starting QB Kevin Kolb. Candlestick or not, Cardinals win 28-17
TEN vs ATL - Matty Ice needs the W after the failed conversion on 4th and 1 in OT last week. And where the hell has Roddy White been all season long? Same goes for Chris Johnson who finally broke the 100 yd rushing mark last week for only the second time this season. Was his hold out worth it? No..... Falcons win 27-20
SD vs CHI - San Diego on the decline, Chicago on the rise. That simple. And I think it is time to start putting Jay Cutler into the elite QB status? Bears win in a shoot-out 35-28.
PHI vs NYG - Possibly one the most underrated rivalries in all of football. This game almost never seems to disappoint the fans and will be a high scoring deep ball throwing affair. How will Philly do without the presence of Desean Jackson, and Vick with some broken ribs? I see the Giants winning 31-21, but still...Go Philly (never thought I'd say that)
Monday
KC vs NE - Strange match-up for the reason that NE is so heavily favored, and they should be. Patriots win in roaring fashion 41-17
Let's see how accurate I am this week
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